April 10, 2026

Global Recession Probability Update

Global Recession Probability Update

With the current Middle East conflict, accelerating oil prices and Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war, clients continue to ask about the probability of a global recession. According to the latest Worldwide Recession Probability data from Franklin Templeton, Australia has a recession probability of 10%, a surprisingly low figure that is also down from last year’s

by Dejan Pekic

10

April 2026

Global Recession Probability Update

Posted by Dejan Pekic

With the current Middle East conflict, accelerating oil prices and Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war, clients continue to ask about the probability of a global recession.

According to the latest Worldwide Recession Probability data from Franklin Templeton, Australia has a recession probability of 10%, a surprisingly low figure that is also down from last year’s 15%. So, while it seems the economy is getting more erratic, that may not actually be the case here.

The same figures state that France (the most likely) has a recession probability of 38%, while the US is at 30%. Alongside Australia at the ‘low probability’ end of the scale are nations such as New Zealand, India, Saudi Arabia and China.

While these figures are interesting to watch, we should remember that there are no certainties when it comes to the economy, so it’s important to stay alert to the potential impact of global events. Waiting for a recession to start an investment strategy isn’t likely to be the best move either. Stay in cash until a market slump and you’re not growing assets against inflation in the meantime.

We always recommend a diversified investment portfolio aligned with your comfortable level of risk. If you have a clear picture of what really happens during economic downturns (and how to stay calm),  it can provide a great opportunity to purchase quality assets at low prices.

 

If you have questions about your investments, contact us for a confidential discussion.

General Advice Warning:

The information in this blog is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.
Newealth Pty Ltd ABN 61 091 100 275 | AFSL 231297

Related Posts

  • A Company of Two, Worth Hundreds of Millions

    The AI productivity revolution has a new poster child. Matthew Gallagher’s AI-powered company, Medvi, a telehealth provider of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, last year reported annual revenue of US$401 million. This year the company is on track to reach $1.8 billion in sales. And the real surprise? Gallagher’s only employee is his younger brother Elliot. It’s

    Published On: May 22nd, 2026By

  • Should You Pay Down Debt or Invest During High Interest Rates?

    With the current RBA decisions affecting so many homeowners and property investors, we’re often asked whether it’s best to pay down debt or invest during high interest rates. The simple answer? There is no single best-fit solution.  Your decision should take into account factors such as your financial position, investment strategy, risk profile and tax

    Published On: May 21st, 2026By

  • Federal Budget Key Changes

    The Federal Government last night handed down its 2026 Budget, with the largest reforms since the Howard era. With the Iraq war and ongoing fuel crisis causing uncertainty across markets and a focus on ‘intergenerational fairness’, there are some key changes for investors. The Budget, if it moves forward into legislation, will see scaled-back tax

    Published On: May 13th, 2026By

Sign Up

Sign up to receive clear insights on market trends, along with practical financial, investment and lifestyle guidance to help you make confident decisions.

Newealth helps professionals, executives and families plan, invest and protect their long-term financial future.

The CFP® Certification Program is the highest designation in financial planning worldwide. It comes coupled with commitment to the highest ethical standards and sets CFP® professionals apart from the rest.

Address
Level 10, 276 Pitt Street
Sydney NSW 2000
P: +61 2 9267 2322

General Advice Warning: The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser.
Go to Top