April 10, 2026

Global Recession Probability Update

Global Recession Probability Update

With the current Middle East conflict, accelerating oil prices and Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war, clients continue to ask about the probability of a global recession. According to the latest Worldwide Recession Probability data from Franklin Templeton, Australia has a recession probability of 10%, a surprisingly low figure that is also down from last year’s

by Dejan Pekic

10

April 2026

Global Recession Probability Update

Posted by Dejan Pekic

With the current Middle East conflict, accelerating oil prices and Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war, clients continue to ask about the probability of a global recession.

According to the latest Worldwide Recession Probability data from Franklin Templeton, Australia has a recession probability of 10%, a surprisingly low figure that is also down from last year’s 15%. So, while it seems the economy is getting more erratic, that may not actually be the case here.

The same figures state that France (the most likely) has a recession probability of 38%, while the US is at 30%. Alongside Australia at the ‘low probability’ end of the scale are nations such as New Zealand, India, Saudi Arabia and China.

While these figures are interesting to watch, we should remember that there are no certainties when it comes to the economy, so it’s important to stay alert to the potential impact of global events. Waiting for a recession to start an investment strategy isn’t likely to be the best move either. Stay in cash until a market slump and you’re not growing assets against inflation in the meantime.

We always recommend a diversified investment portfolio aligned with your comfortable level of risk. If you have a clear picture of what really happens during economic downturns (and how to stay calm),  it can provide a great opportunity to purchase quality assets at low prices.

 

If you have questions about your investments, contact us for a confidential discussion.

General Advice Warning:

The information in this blog is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the information is appropriate for you and seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.
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